Winning in 2016 will be expensive and require a candidate who can appeal across the political spectrum, and Democrats have a possible [note: this article written on 3/22, Murphy announced on 3/23] candidate who has proven he can go toe-to-toe with whoever wins the GOP primary: Patrick Murphy.
Let’s start by looking at his electoral success. In his two elections, Murphy has out-performed the top of the ticket both times. In 2012, in his expensive battle with Allen West, he out-performed the president by 3 points, and this year he out-performed Charlie Crist by approximately 10 points. Murphy’s 20 point win in 2014 was even more impressive when you consider the gale force wind that Democrats faced during that cycle. Particularly if the GOP nominates Jeff Atwater, who has proven his ability to win swing voters, having a candidate with the ability to win voters across the aisle will be key.
Murphy’s strength among swing voters means he will absolutely run stronger with whites than either Obama or Crist. For Murphy, an electorate that is 67 percent white, 14 percent black (African American and Caribbean), 16 percent Hispanic and 2 percent other – he is over 50 percent simply by getting 41 percent of whites and 55 percent of Hispanics, vote shares that are well within historic norms. By comparison, Betty Castor in 2004 won in the mid-40s among whites – and almost certainly would have won under a 2016 demographic model, and Bill Nelson in 2012 ran 10 points higher than Obama among whites.
In addition, Murphy’s fundraising abilities, raising a remarkable $11 million in his two races, as well as the talent of his experienced team that can and will put together a very credible operation quickly.
Let’s start by looking at his electoral success. In his two elections, Murphy has out-performed the top of the ticket both times. In 2012, in his expensive battle with Allen West, he out-performed the president by 3 points, and this year he out-performed Charlie Crist by approximately 10 points. Murphy’s 20 point win in 2014 was even more impressive when you consider the gale force wind that Democrats faced during that cycle. Particularly if the GOP nominates Jeff Atwater, who has proven his ability to win swing voters, having a candidate with the ability to win voters across the aisle will be key.
Murphy’s strength among swing voters means he will absolutely run stronger with whites than either Obama or Crist. For Murphy, an electorate that is 67 percent white, 14 percent black (African American and Caribbean), 16 percent Hispanic and 2 percent other – he is over 50 percent simply by getting 41 percent of whites and 55 percent of Hispanics, vote shares that are well within historic norms. By comparison, Betty Castor in 2004 won in the mid-40s among whites – and almost certainly would have won under a 2016 demographic model, and Bill Nelson in 2012 ran 10 points higher than Obama among whites.
In addition, Murphy’s fundraising abilities, raising a remarkable $11 million in his two races, as well as the talent of his experienced team that can and will put together a very credible operation quickly.
![Dr. W. H. Cotton’s ode: “Oh, My Lake Worth, Florida!” [circa 1920].](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUL75cv6zJQFjX15ojOIIz9AjnbqH4asHJTYSDhnGnYr7rJZRha1NcNTirj2xPcId158vkz5Hw-wXgOfrlztj8Zr8jLFFCfuEN6PyV44ZlpMRmJ68xbtFL9vzxNiG7xDs_HJvm/s1600/LakeWorthPioneers.JPG)
